How Will Lennar Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Lennar (NYSE:LEN) , one of the largest home construction companies in the U.S., is set to publish its earnings around June 16, 2025, reporting on a quarter that is likely to have seen the company’s business slow down amid continued challenges in the U.S. housing market driven by high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Consensus projects earnings of about $1.96 per share, down from $3.38 per share in the year-ago period, while revenues are likely to come in at about $8.2 billion, down 6% compared to last year. Lennar has $29 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $36 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.7 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Lennar’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -4.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lennar stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lennar. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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