Buy or Sell Lucid Stock?

Lucid (LCID) stock has jumped 18% during the past day, and is currently trading at $11.47. We believe there are only a couple of things to fear in LCID stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Moderate valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $3.6 Bil in market cap, Lucid provides electric vehicles, EV powertrains, and battery systems, designing and engineering innovative transportation solutions with a network of twenty U.S. retail studios.

[1] Valuation Looks Moderate

This table highlights how LCID is valued vs broader market. For more details see: LCID Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• Lucid has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 45.2% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 46% from $731 Mil to $1.1 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 68.3% to $337 Mil in the most recent quarter from $200 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how LCID is growing vs broader market. For more details see: LCID Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• LCID last 12 month operating income was $-3.2 Bil representing operating margin of -297.5%
• With cash flow margin of -239.2%, it generated nearly $-2.5 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, LCID generated nearly $-2.3 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -214.1%

This table highlights how LCID profitability vs broader market. For more details see: LCID Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• LCID Debt was $2.8 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $3.6 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 78.0%
• LCID Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $2.3 Bil of $8.8 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 26.5%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

LCID saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• LCID stock fell 93.5% from a high of $580.50 on 18 February 2021 to $37.55 on 9 November 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is $51.40 on 14 December 2023 , and currently trades at $11.47

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• LCID stock fell 2.6% from a high of $98.90 on 18 September 2020 to $96.30 on 23 October 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 December 2020

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read LCID Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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