Kimberly-Clark Stock Looks Set For Bounce After Shedding 8% Last Month

+0.74%
Upside
134
Market
135
Trefis
KMB: Kimberly-Clark logo
KMB
Kimberly-Clark

Kimberly-Clark Corp stock (NYSE: KMB) is down 8% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was up more than 5% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -0.09% and 1.2%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. Kimberly-Clark’s recent mixed FY ’21 earnings saw revenue rising from $19.1 billion in FY ’20 to $19.4 billion in FY ’21. Despite a drop in operating expenses, rising commodity costs drove up cost of sales and operating income dropped from $3.24 billion to $2.56 billion over this period. This led to EPS dropping from $6.90 in FY ’20 to $5.38 in FY ’21. Additionally, demand concerns and rising inflation has led to a further drop in the company’s stock.

Now, is KMB stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a very strong 83% chance of a rise in KMB stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on KMB Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about KMB’s EBITDA and comparison to peers, see Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) EBITDA Comparison. Additionally, for details about KMB revenues and comparison to peers, see Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: KMB -8.1%, vs. S&P500 5.4%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 83% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • KMB stock dropped 8.1% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.4%
  • A change of -8.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 63 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 63 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 52 occasions
  • This points to an 83% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: KMB 1.2%, vs. S&P500 4.6%; Underperformed market

(41% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • KMB stock gained 1.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) jump of 4.6%
  • A change of 1.2% or more over ten trading days is a 41% likelihood event, which has occurred 1025 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1025 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 561 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: KMB -0.09%, vs. S&P500 0.9%; Underperformed market

(47% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

  • KMB stock dropped a marginal 0.09% over a five-day trading period ending 3/23/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.9%
  • A change of -0.09% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 47% likelihood event, which has occurred 1182 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1182 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 647 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 KMB Return -7% -15% 6%
 S&P 500 Return 3% -5% 102%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% -9% 259%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/24/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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