Down 7% In 2022, Can Kimberly-Clark Stock Bounce Back Despite Profitability Woes?

-3.02%
Downside
139
Market
135
Trefis
KMB: Kimberly-Clark logo
KMB
Kimberly-Clark

Kimberly-Clark Corp stock (NYSE: KMB) is down almost 8% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down more than 6% over this period. If we look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned -4.7%, underperforming the broader market. KMB reported mixed FY ’21 earnings late last month, with revenue rising from $19.1 billion in FY ’20 to $19.4 billion in FY ’21. However, with COGS and operating expenses rising at a faster rate, operating margins dropped heavily from 16.9% to 13.2% over this period. Combined with a roughly unchanged effective tax rate, this led to EPS falling from $6.90 in FY ’20 to $5.38 in FY ’21. The stock’s recent downturn has come largely due to this slump in profitability, led by a sell-off in the broader markets.

Now, is KMB stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a strong 87% chance of a rise in KMB stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on KMB Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about KMB’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about KMB revenues and comparison to peers, see Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: KMB -7.5%, vs. S&P500 -6.5%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 87% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • KMB stock dropped 7.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.5%
  • A change of -7.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 60 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 60 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 52 occasions
  • This points to an 87% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: KMB -4.7%, vs. S&P500 -0.4%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 72% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • KMB stock dropped 4.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.4%
  • A change of -4.7% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 134 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 134 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 96 occasions
  • This points to a 72% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: KMB -0.2%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Outperformed market

(47% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

  • KMB stock lost a marginal 0.2% over a five-day trading period ending 2/11/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.9%
  • A change of -0.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 47% likelihood event, which has occurred 1175 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1175 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 647 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 KMB Return -4% -7% 16%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -7% 97%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 1% -9% 259%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/13/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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