How Will Keysight Technologies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Keysight Technologies (NYSE:KEYS) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. The company has $60 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $906 Mil in operating profits and net income of $962 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Keysight Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 6.8%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/23/2026 | 23.1% | 27.9% | 21.9% |
| 11/24/2025 | 10.0% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| 8/19/2025 | -3.0% | 0.6% | 8.4% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.2% | -2.6% | -2.1% |
| 2/25/2025 | -6.9% | -11.1% | -9.2% |
| 11/19/2024 | 8.8% | 13.0% | 5.1% |
| 8/20/2024 | 13.9% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| 5/20/2024 | -8.4% | -10.8% | -15.2% |
| 2/20/2024 | -6.7% | -1.1% | -2.4% |
| 11/20/2023 | -0.3% | 1.0% | 16.1% |
| 8/17/2023 | -13.8% | -14.9% | -11.5% |
| 5/16/2023 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 12.9% |
| 2/21/2023 | -12.7% | -12.6% | -15.4% |
| 11/17/2022 | 3.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.9% | 0.9% | -2.3% |
| 5/17/2022 | -3.1% | -1.1% | -6.6% |
| 2/17/2022 | -3.0% | -3.3% | -3.2% |
| 11/22/2021 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 4.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 1.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| 5/19/2021 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 6.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -7.1% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 23.1% | 27.9% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -14.9% | -15.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 7.6% | -9.9% | -18.1% |
| 3Y History | 4.9% | -17.7% | -28.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Keysight Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Keysight Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS Earnings Dates | KEYS | FTV | TDY | TER | MKSI | VIAV |
| 2/23/2026 | 23.1% | -4.9% | N/A* | 12.6% | N/A* | 30.1% |
| 11/24/2025 | 10.0% | 4.2% | N/A* | -4.5% | 7.3% | 18.4% |
| 8/19/2025 | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.6% | 2.8% | 12.3% | 4.9% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 20.5% | -13.1% |
| 2/25/2025 | -6.9% | 0.6% | N/A* | -3.1% | -13.4% | 12.8% |
| 11/19/2024 | 8.8% | 3.3% | -1.1% | -7.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% |
| 8/20/2024 | 13.9% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 1.1% |
| 5/20/2024 | -8.4% | 1.4% | 12.4% | 28.1% | 7.5% | -3.2% |
| 2/20/2024 | -6.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 10.6% | -4.3% |
| 11/20/2023 | -0.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 2.9% |
| 8/17/2023 | -13.8% | 0.8% | 3.2% | -9.0% | -12.0% | -5.1% |
| 5/16/2023 | 7.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 3.4% | N/A* | -1.0% |
| 2/21/2023 | -12.7% | 1.7% | -0.1% | -2.3% | N/A* | -5.0% |
| 11/17/2022 | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% | -6.1% | -24.0% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 2.6% | -1.3% | 0.5% |
| 5/17/2022 | -3.1% | 1.6% | -9.9% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| 2/17/2022 | -3.0% | -4.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | -3.5% | N/A* |
| 11/22/2021 | 1.7% | 4.9% | -3.0% | 21.4% | 12.7% | -5.6% |
| 8/18/2021 | 1.9% | N/A* | -0.9% | -6.6% | -11.8% | 1.3% |
| CORRELATION | 17.1% | 51.5% | 9.0% | 40.4% | 19.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after KEYS
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