With Joby Aviation Stock Down 14% In A Week, How Confident Are You?
Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock is down 14.1% in 5 trading days. The stock still looks expensive which, combined with history of sub-par recovery following large dips, suggests risk. Consider the following data:
- Size: Joby Aviation is a $13 Bil company with $23 Mil in revenue currently trading at $14.90.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 1934.5% and operating margin of -2926.6%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.72
- Valuation: Joby Aviation stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -11.9 and P/EBIT multiple of -19.0
- Has returned (median) -15.8% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See JOBY Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for JOBY, see Buy or Sell JOBY Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and JOBY drops another 20-30% to $10 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. That is one way to look at stocks. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: JOBY provides aerial ridesharing services by developing electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for urban transportation.
2022 Inflation Shock
- JOBY stock fell 79.7% from a high of $15.70 on 16 February 2021 to $3.18 on 27 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 July 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $20.39 on 4 August 2025 , and currently trades at $14.90
| JOBY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -79.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 932 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- JOBY stock fell 4.1% from a high of $11.84 on 28 December 2020 to $11.36 on 30 December 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| JOBY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -4.1% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 148 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low JOBY could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.