Was The Run In JNJ Stock Hiding In Plain Sight?

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock returned around 52% in the twelve months, against 17% for the S&P 500. A $10,000 holding became about $15,220. Over that period, J&J’s revenue growth accelerated even as the company navigated the anticipated loss of exclusivity and biosimilar erosion for STELARA. If that shift showed up in J&J’s calls and filings first, a reader could have spotted it early. So was J&J’s run in plain sight before it began?

Partly: J&J’s Growth Past STELARA Was In Plain Sight

To a meaningful extent, yes. On its January 22, 2025 call, management said J&J was overcoming the arrival of cheaper US copies of STELARA, known as biosimilars. That was public eight months before the run began.

J&J’s filed numbers were in line with that. Revenue in the quarter ended December 2024 grew 5.3% from a year earlier, in a filing dated February 13, 2025. So the company was still growing while STELARA sales came under pressure. But one quarter was not yet proof that J&J could replace STELARA’s sales with newer drugs.

J&J’s Lung Cancer Combination Showed Promise Amid Talc Headlines

J&J did have a promising newer treatment before the run, but it was easy to miss. In a March 31, 2025 report, study investigators expected J&J’s Rybrevant-Lazcluze combination to help some lung cancer patients live longer. They put the gain at a year or more over current treatment.

That report came out on a crowded day. On the same day, a U.S. bankruptcy judge dismissed the Chapter 11 filing of J&J subsidiary Red River Talc, which had sought to advance a proposed $10 billion settlement of ongoing talc litigation. J&J shares declined more than 3% the following trading session. The drug report was public, but it came out in the middle of talc headlines.

J&J’s filed growth dipped, then recovered. Reported revenue growth fell to 2.4% in the quarter ended March 2025, then rose to 5.8% in the quarter ended June 2025. J&J filed that June quarter on July 24, 2025, before the run began. The drug data and the sales recovery were both public before the run, but J&J’s growth was still modest.

Can J&J Sustain That Growth Pace Moving Forward?

Growth picked up further during the run, but the latest quarter was slower. J&J’s revenue over the latest twelve months was $97.9 billion, up 8.1% from a year earlier. A year before that, growth had been 4.7%.

J&J was not the only drugmaker rallying on its next-generation drug pipeline. Merck gained 95.6% over the same period as its own post-Keytruda pipeline gained clarity, proving that while J&J’s pipeline progress unlocked real value, rival franchises were able to build an even stronger replacement narrative. Most of J&J’s gain also came early: over the last six months, the stock returned 11.5%, against 22% for the S&P 500.

Revenue grew 9.9% from a year earlier in the prior quarter, then 6.6% in the latest quarter. Meanwhile, investors now pay 30.6 times J&J’s yearly earnings, against 21.9 for the S&P 500. If growth slips back toward early-2025 levels, you would be paying an elevated premium for a business whose top line expansion may be moderating.

J&J has kept growing since management flagged the STELARA decline. J&J is also still reporting study results for a version of the lung cancer combination. The pace of growth is the weaker part. If the next quarterly report shows revenue growth back near 9.9%, the pickup is still going. Another quarter near 6.6% would suggest that the faster growth seen during the run has cooled.

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