Is Cerebras’ Next Big Thing Already Here?
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) sells AI hardware and rents out computing power through its own cloud. The shares trade 37.3% below their 52-week high, even though management raised its 2026 revenue forecast in August. Cerebras still reports a loss. Anyone buying the shares today is paying for growth still to come. So how much of that growth has Cerebras already signed?
Cerebras Has Already Signed $25.4 Billion Of Work
Cerebras had $25.4 billion of remaining performance obligations at June 30, 2026. That is work customers have signed for, but Cerebras has not yet delivered. The forecast management raised in August is for core revenue of $880 million to $890 million for all of 2026.
Core revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $209.9 million, up 103% from a year earlier. Management tied most of that revenue to its cloud service. Cerebras’ OpenAI deployment ramped up there, and other cloud customers increased their usage. Management’s 2027 target is for core revenue to more than triple.
How Much Are You Paying For Cerebras’ Growth?
You are paying 51.1 times sales for Cerebras stock, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. That multiple is the company’s market value divided by its sales over the past twelve months. At that level, the price appears to assume rapid growth ahead.
The signed work includes no business from AWS or any other hyperscaler. Hyperscalers are the largest cloud providers. Cerebras expects its offering on AWS’ Bedrock platform to be generally available in the first quarter of 2027. Any business from AWS would come on top of the signed work. To deliver all of this quickly, Cerebras needs space to run its systems.
Cerebras Needs More Data Centers To Deliver
Management said data center space is the bottleneck for the whole industry. Cerebras is no exception. By management’s account, the faster Cerebras and its customers bring on new data centers, the faster it grows. Cerebras has secured more than 600 megawatts of data center capacity, either live now or due by the end of 2027.
To meet demand today, Cerebras temporarily rents back some of its own systems that its cloud customers run. That rented capacity costs more, so gross margin is lower in the short term. Gross margin is the share of sales left after the direct costs of delivering them. On the August call, management said core gross margin should hit its low point in the third quarter of 2026. Management expected a significant improvement in the fourth.
The other open question is customer concentration. It came up on the August 12, 2026 call. Management said OpenAI will shrink as a share of revenue over time. Management added that OpenAI should still be a meaningful portion of revenue in 2027.
The third-quarter 2026 report will show whether the signed work is turning into sales as quickly as management expects. Sales on track for the full-year forecast would suggest it is. A shortfall would raise the question of whether Cerebras has enough data center space. If space is short, the 2027 target would be harder to reach.
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