Johnson Controls stock (NYSE: JCI) has fallen 21% in a month, while it’s down 35% YTD. The company recently reported mixed Q2FY22 results, with earnings of $0.63 on a per share and adjusted basis falling in line, but revenue of $6.1 billion fell short of the $6.2 billion consensus estimate. Furthermore, the company’s management cut its full-fiscal 2022 earnings guidance to fall in the range of $2.95 to $3.05, compared to its prior guidance of the $3.22 to $3.32 range. This can be attributed to supply chain disruptions. This did not sit well with the investors, and JCI stock has plunged over 15% over the last five days. A sell-off in broader markets owing to the rising interest rates and high inflation isn’t helping JCI stock, either.
Now that JCI has seen a fall of 21% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a very high chance of a rise for JCI stock over the next month. Of 18 instances in the last ten years that JCI stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 21% or more, 15 resulted in JCI stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 15 out of 18, or about an 83% chance of a rise in JCI stock over the next month. See our analysis of Johnson Controls Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years’ data
- After moving -16% or more over five days, the stock rose on 40% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -17% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 50% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -21% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 83% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a strong chance of a rise in JCI stock over the next month. However, it has an equal chance of a rise or a fall in the next ten days, and a higher chance of a fall in the next five days.
Johnson Controls (JCI) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: CMI highest at 4.0%; JCI lowest at -15.9%
- Ten-Day Return: CMI highest at 3.3%; JCI lowest at -17.4%
- Twenty-One Day Return: CMI highest at 3.4%; JCI lowest at -21.0%
|S&P 500 Return||-3%||-16%||78%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-7%||-23%||205%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/10/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016