How Will Intuitive Surgical Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. The company has a market value of about $151.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $11.0 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion in operating profit, with net income of $3.1 billion.
While post-earnings price reactions remain inherently unpredictable, analyzing historical reaction patterns offers structured context for assessing post-earnings volatility.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Intuitive Surgical Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 40% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 42%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 8 positive 1D returns is 9.2%, and the median of the 12 negative ones is -3.6%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 13.9% and -14.3%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/16/2026 | -14.1% | -17.5% | -1.9% |
| 4/21/2026 | 7.2% | 3.4% | -0.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -0.3% | -3.5% | -6.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | 13.9% | 17.9% | 22.0% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.8% | -2.8% | -6.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | 1.9% | 7.6% | 14.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -4.0% | -4.7% | -2.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | 10.0% | 8.0% | 11.4% |
| 7/18/2024 | 9.3% | 5.0% | 15.1% |
| 4/18/2024 | -1.7% | 0.1% | 7.0% |
| 1/23/2024 | -0.4% | 1.6% | 4.8% |
| 10/19/2023 | -2.4% | -5.1% | 11.6% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.2% | -6.9% | -17.8% |
| 4/18/2023 | 10.9% | 9.5% | 14.5% |
| 1/24/2023 | -5.5% | -4.8% | -8.9% |
| 10/18/2022 | 9.0% | 22.8% | 35.8% |
| 7/21/2022 | -5.7% | 2.6% | 0.01% |
| 4/21/2022 | -14.3% | -17.4% | -25.6% |
| 1/20/2022 | -7.9% | -10.2% | -4.1% |
| 10/19/2021 | 1.2% | 3.4% | 8.7% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.2% | 5.0% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -5.1% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 13.9% | 22.8% | 35.8% |
| Max Negative | -14.3% | -17.5% | -25.6% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| 3 Years | 0.03 | -0.27 | -0.16 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Johnson & Johnson reported before Intuitive Surgical in 12 of the last 20 quarters, usually by a few days. It reported this season on October 13. The table compares the peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Intuitive Surgical’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The historical correlation between the two stocks’ immediate post-earnings moves is slightly negative at -0.22, indicating that Johnson & Johnson’s earnings reaction has not served as a direct directional indicator for Intuitive Surgical.
| ISRG Earnings Date | ISRG 1D | JNJ 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/16/2026 | -14.1% | -2.7% |
| 4/21/2026 | 7.2% | 0.9% |
| 1/22/2026 | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| 10/21/2025 | 13.9% | -0.03% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.8% | 6.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 1.9% | -0.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -4.0% | -1.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | 10.0% | 1.5% |
| 7/18/2024 | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| 10/19/2023 | -2.4% | -0.9% |
| 7/21/2022 | -5.7% | -1.5% |
| 4/21/2022 | -14.3% | 3.1% |
| Correlation | – | 0.22 |
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