With IonQ Stock Down 20% In A Month, How Confident Are You?
IonQ (IONQ) stock is down 20.3% in 21 trading days. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to profitability and downturn resilience. Consider the following data:
- Size: IonQ is a $15 Bil company with $52 Mil in revenue currently trading at $58.40.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 67.8% and operating margin of -700.6%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.4
- Valuation: IonQ stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -31.6 and P/EBIT multiple of -39.9
- Has returned (median) 139% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See IONQ Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for IONQ, see Buy or Sell IONQ Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and IONQ drops another 20-30% to $41 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in the asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner — whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: IONQ provides general-purpose quantum computing systems accessible via major cloud platforms like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Marketplace.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- IONQ stock fell 90.0% from a high of $31.00 on 17 November 2021 to $3.10 on 27 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 November 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $82.09 on 13 October 2025 , and currently trades at $58.40
| IONQ | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -90.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 695 days | 464 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low IONQ could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.