How Will Lamb Weston Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

March 27th, 2025 by Trefis Team

Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW), a leading global producer of frozen French fries, is scheduled to release its earnings report on Thursday, April 3, 2025. Analysts anticipate the company will report earnings of $0.88 per share on revenues of $1.49 billion. This compares to the prior-year quarter, where Lamb Weston reported earnings of $1.20 per share on sales of $1.46 billion. The company has $7.7 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $742 Mil in operating profits and net income of $367 Mil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Lamb Weston’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
  • Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns =-11%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

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LW observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

LW Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lamb Weston stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lamb Weston. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

LW Correlation With Peer Earnings

 

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