How Will Howmet Aerospace Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Howmet Aerospace (NYSE:HWM) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $98 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.5 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Howmet Aerospace’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 5.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -1.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | 6.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.8% | 1.4% | -2.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -6.4% | -5.2% | -8.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 6.8% | 13.4% | 22.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.0% | 8.1% | -1.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | 12.4% | 11.3% | 17.6% |
| 7/30/2024 | 13.2% | 4.7% | 17.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 15.5% | 21.9% | 26.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | 5.4% | 7.3% | 11.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 18.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -4.2% | -1.3% | -3.5% |
| 5/2/2023 | 1.5% | -1.0% | -3.4% |
| 2/14/2023 | 4.7% | 2.5% | -4.1% |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.7% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.3% | 1.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.4% | -1.6% | 5.5% |
| 2/2/2022 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.9% | 6.2% | -4.4% |
| 8/4/2021 | -7.0% | -2.1% | -3.3% |
| 5/6/2021 | -0.4% | -1.5% | 8.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.7% | 7.3% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -1.5% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 15.5% | 21.9% | 26.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -5.2% | -8.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.1% | 35.0% | 9.2% |
| 3Y History | -2.8% | 53.9% | 34.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Howmet Aerospace stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Howmet Aerospace. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| HWM Earnings Dates | HWM | PH | CRS |
| 2/12/2026 | 6.0% | 3.8% | 18.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.8% | N/A* | 6.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | 6.8% | N/A* | 2.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.0% | -1.2% | -4.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | 13.2% | N/A* | 0.4% |
| 2/13/2024 | 5.4% | 2.6% | -5.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.9% | N/A* | 7.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -4.2% | N/A* | 0.7% |
| 5/2/2023 | 1.5% | N/A* | 5.3% |
| 2/14/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.7% | N/A* | 7.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.3% | N/A* | 2.9% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.4% | N/A* | -1.1% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.9% | N/A* | -1.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | -7.0% | N/A* | -6.6% |
| CORRELATION | -54.8% | -17.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after HWM
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