HIMS Shares Tumbled -21%, Opportunity Or Trap?
Hims & Hers Health stock has fallen by 21.4% in less than a month, from levels of $64.22 on 6/20/2025 to $50.46 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Hims & Hers Health passes basic quality checks and has returned (on average) 87% in one year, and 157% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 10.5% |
| 3M | 2.8% |
| 6M | 44.2% |
| 12M | 58.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
HIMS had 11 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 103% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 198 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -28% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | HIMS Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | HIMS | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 58% | 103% | -28% | 198 | ||||
| 3272025 | -31% | -6% | 58% | 103% | -21% | 50 | ||
| 8072024 | -31% | -5% | 215% | 329% | -15% | 196 | ||
| 5032024 | -33% | -2% | 365% | 510% | 0% | 292 | ||
| 6202023 | -31% | 6% | 168% | 197% | -31% | 364 | ||
| 10192022 | -37% | -7% | 47% | 194% | 0% | 198 | ||
| 5102022 | -33% | -12% | 205% | 247% | -10% | 360 | ||
| 1282022 | -32% | -6% | 92% | 79% | -28% | 364 | ||
| 12032021 | -30% | -0% | 14% | 23% | -47% | 255 | ||
| 7132021 | -31% | 4% | -46% | 0% | -69% | 0 | ||
| 5132021 | -38% | 4% | -61% | 88% | -62% | 26 | ||
| 3192021 | -35% | 1% | -65% | 6% | -73% | 81 | ||
Hims & Hers Health Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 86.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 77.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 18.7% | Pass |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.