Fiserv Stock To $40?

Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell FISV stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $40 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in FISV stock given its overall moderate operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its low valuation, this makes the stock look risky.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $31 Bil in market cap, Fiserv provides payment and financial technology, including point-of-sale merchant acquiring, digital commerce, general ledger management, and card transaction processing services.

[1] Valuation Looks Low

This table highlights how FISV is valued vs broader market. For more details see: FISV Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Weak

• Fiserv has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 6.1% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 3.6% from $20 Bil to $21 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 0.6% to $5.3 Bil in the most recent quarter from $5.3 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how FISV is growing vs broader market.

[3] Profitability Appears Strong

• FISV last 12 month operating income was $5.7 Bil representing operating margin of 26.9%
• With cash flow margin of 28.6%, it generated nearly $6.1 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, FISV generated nearly $3.5 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 16.4%

This table highlights how FISV profitability vs broader market.

[4] Financial Stability Looks Weak

• FISV Debt was $29 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $31 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 95.4%
• FISV Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $798 Mil of $80 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 1.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Strong

FISV has been more resilient than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• FISV stock fell 30.2% from a high of $126.55 on 26 April 2021 to $88.38 on 16 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 July 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $237.79 on 3 March 2025 , and currently trades at $57.02

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• FISV stock fell 37.8% from a high of $123.89 on 4 February 2020 to $77.00 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 March 2021

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• FISV stock fell 51.1% from a high of $14.81 on 31 May 2007 to $7.24 on 27 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 December 2010

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.