LII Stock Falls -16% With A 10-day Losing Spree On Earnings Miss
Lennox International (LII) – a provider of HVAC and refrigeration equipment and systems – hit a 10-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -16%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $3.1 Bil over the last 10 days and currently stands at $17 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 1.0% compared to -1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss
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- EPS of $4.45 vs $4.76 estimate
- Revenue of $1.20B vs $1.27B estimate, down 11.2% YoY
- Impact: Sustained Institutional Selling, Increased Negative Sentiment
[2] Analyst Price Target Reductions
- Morgan Stanley lowered price target to $450
- RBC Capital reduced price target to $534
- Impact: Accelerated Decline, Loss of Investor Confidence
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in LII stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell LII).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -16% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for LII stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | LII | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| 10D (Current Streak) | -15.6% | -1.5% |
| 1M (21D) | -13.7% | -2.4% |
| 3M (63D) | -4.7% | -1.6% |
| YTD 2026 | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 2025 | -19.5% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 37.3% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 89.5% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: LII Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 21.0 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 121 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 21 | 44 |
| 4D | 0 | 30 |
| 5D | 0 | 16 |
| 6D | 0 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 22 |
| Total >=3 D | 21 | 121 |
Key Financials for Lennox International (LII)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $5.3 Bil | $5.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.0 Bil | $1.1 Bil |
| Net Income | $811.1 Mil | $805.8 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.4 Bil | $1.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $307.0 Mil | $239.6 Mil |
| Net Income | $245.8 Mil | $162.1 Mil |
The losing streak LII stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.