Hartford Financial Stock Is Undervalued

+8.10%
Upside
102
Market
110
Trefis
HIG: Hartford Financial Services Group logo
HIG
Hartford Financial Services Group

Hartford Financial’s stock (NYSE: HIG) has lost roughly 7% YTD as compared to the 13% rise in the S&P500 index over the same period. Further, at the current price of $70 per share, it is trading 17% below its fair value of $85 – Trefis’ estimate for Hartford Financial’s valuation. The property & casualty (P&C) insurance giant posted mixed results in the first quarter, with earnings being in-line with expectations but revenues missing the mark. It reported total revenues of $5.9 billion – up 10% y-o-y, primarily driven by a 9% rise in the earned premiums. The premiums mainly benefited from growth in the property & casualty (P&C) commercial lines and group benefits insurance divisions. On the cost front, total benefits, losses & expenses as a % of revenues slightly decreased in the quarter, resulting in a 21% y-o-y improvement in the adjusted net income to $530 million.

The company’s top line suffered a marginal drop to $22.36 billion in FY2022, despite an 8% rise in the earned premiums. It was because the positive impact was more than offset by lower net investment income, a drop in fee income, and a net realized loss of -$627 million. Further, total expenses as a % of revenues increased in the year. Overall, it led to a 23% y-o-y decrease in the adjusted net income to $1.79 billion. 

Moving forward, we expect the same trend to continue in Q2. Notably, the consensus estimates for Q2 revenues and earnings are $6.05 billion and $1.95 respectively. Overall, Hartford Financial’s revenues are estimated to remain around $24.4 billion in FY2023. Additionally, HIG’s adjusted net income margin is likely to be around 10%, resulting in an adjusted net income of $2.4 billion and an annual GAAP EPS of $7.46. This coupled with a P/E multiple of just above 11x will lead to a valuation of $85.

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What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.

 Returns Jun 2023
MTD [1]
2023
YTD [1]
2017-23
Total [2]
 HIG Return 3% -7% 48%
 S&P 500 Return 4% 13% 94%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 5% 15% 260%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/26/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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