How Will Home Depot Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. The company has $295 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $166 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $22 Bil in operating profits and net income of $15 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Home Depot’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/24/2026 | 2.0% | -1.6% | -11.6% |
| 11/18/2025 | -6.0% | -6.0% | -0.2% |
| 8/19/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.6% | -2.4% | -8.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.8% | 1.9% | -5.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.3% | 0.5% | 3.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| 5/14/2024 | -0.1% | -0.9% | 1.6% |
| 2/20/2024 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| 11/14/2023 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 20.0% |
| 8/15/2023 | 0.7% | -1.8% | -0.6% |
| 5/16/2023 | -2.2% | 0.7% | 4.6% |
| 2/21/2023 | -7.1% | -6.9% | -8.3% |
| 11/15/2022 | 1.6% | 3.2% | 9.3% |
| 8/16/2022 | 4.1% | -0.8% | -11.6% |
| 5/17/2022 | 1.7% | -3.4% | -4.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | -8.9% | -8.9% | -4.4% |
| 11/16/2021 | 5.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| 8/17/2021 | -4.3% | -2.2% | 0.0% |
| 5/18/2021 | -1.0% | -1.6% | -4.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.2% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.9% | -11.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -26.1% | -5.6% | 26.2% |
| 3Y History | -44.9% | 6.3% | 46.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Home Depot stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Home Depot. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| HD Earnings Dates | HD | AMZN |
| 2/24/2026 | 2.0% | -6.3% |
| 11/18/2025 | -6.0% | -0.1% |
| 8/19/2025 | 3.2% | -2.6% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.6% | 7.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.8% | -10.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.3% | 12.1% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.2% | -7.5% |
| 5/14/2024 | -0.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2024 | 0.1% | 4.9% |
| 11/14/2023 | 5.4% | 21.9% |
| 8/15/2023 | 0.7% | 6.8% |
| 5/16/2023 | -2.2% | 3.3% |
| 2/21/2023 | -7.1% | -16.2% |
| 11/15/2022 | 1.6% | -10.8% |
| 8/16/2022 | 4.1% | 18.4% |
| 5/17/2022 | 1.7% | -20.2% |
| 2/22/2022 | -8.9% | 8.2% |
| 11/16/2021 | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| 8/17/2021 | -4.3% | -9.9% |
| CORRELATION | -10.2% |
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