Can Grab Stock Swing Back To $4?

September 26th, 2025 by Trefis Team
GRAB: Grab logo
GRAB
Grab

Grab Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRAB), Southeast Asia’s leading super-app for ride-hailing, deliveries, and digital payments, has rallied in 2025, up roughly 30% year-to-date to about $6.25 per share. But just as investors are asking whether the stock could double, there’s another, equally pressing question: could Grab’s momentum fade and the stock slide back toward $4? Let’s break down the thesis.

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Core Thesis: The Path Back to $4

Growth Normalization & Valuation Risk

Grab reported $7.9 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) for 2024, with revenues of about $2.2 billion—a slower pace than its early growth years. Ride-hailing is recovering, but food delivery has cooled, and fintech remains a drag on profits.

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At $6.25 per share, Grab trades at around 3.5x forward sales, a discount to global peers like Uber. Yet if revenue growth continues to hover in the mid-single digits and margins remain razor-thin, investors may apply a harsher discount. A multiple closer to 2x sales would imply a share price near $4, well below today’s level.

The key insight: Grab doesn’t need a collapse to see downside. Modest disappointment in growth or profitability could be enough to reset expectations.

Key Bearish Drivers

  • Delivery Growth Slows – Food delivery demand has normalized post-COVID, and volumes are stabilizing rather than accelerating.
  • Fragile Margins – While consolidated adjusted EBITDA is positive, margins remain low and could be pressured by rising driver incentives or competition.
  • Fintech Drag – Grab’s push into digital banking and payments continues to consume capital without delivering profitability.
  • Competitive Pressures – GoTo in Indonesia and Sea’s Shopee in payments and delivery keep pricing pressure high.
  • Valuation Skepticism – Investors are still unsure whether the super-app model can sustain durable profits across multiple verticals.

Of Course There Are Bullish Offsets

  • Ride-hailing volumes are rebounding strongly, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in key urban markets.
  • Partnerships with financial institutions and homegrown fintech could accelerate growth in payments and lending.
  • Grab has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA, signaling improving operational discipline.
  • Its dominant market share across Southeast Asia remains a powerful competitive moat.

The Verdict

At $6.25 per share, Grab has staged a respectable rally in 2025, but the risk of retracement remains. If growth continues to normalize and fintech losses drag, the stock could compress back toward $4. That said, stronger margin gains and digital banking adoption could justify today’s valuation—or even push it higher. For investors, Grab remains a story of high potential but equally high execution risk. At $6.25, the stock prices in recovery. At $4, it would reflect doubts about the super-app model’s profitability. Which way it goes will depend on whether Grab can convert market leadership into sustainable earnings power.

Investors should be prepared for significant volatility and the potential for substantial losses if market conditions deteriorate or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious growth plans. While the 2x upside potential is mathematically sound based on projected revenues, it requires flawless execution in a rapidly evolving and competitive landscape. Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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