Does Alphabet Stock Have More Upside?
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock is at an interesting point right now. It has strong momentum, and if you bet on it, you are betting on a company with a strong margin, good cash flow, a low-debt capital structure, and good tailwinds. But is that enough?
Why Bet On GOOGL Now?
The primary driver for Alphabet is the accelerating, high-margin growth of Google Cloud, fueled by enterprise adoption of its superior AI infrastructure (TPUs) and foundation models (Gemini). This creates a powerful narrative and financial shift from a mature advertising business to a high-growth enterprise AI leader.
- Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 48% YoY in Q4 2025, outpacing competitors AWS (24%) and Azure (39%).
- Google Cloud backlog surged 55% QoQ to $240 billion, providing high visibility into future revenue.
- Google Cloud operating margin expanded rapidly from 17.5% to 30.1% YoY, proving the growth is highly accretive.
How Do The Fundamentals Look?
- Long-Term Profitability: About 36.6% operating cash flow margin and 30.5% operating margin last 3-year average.
- Strong Momentum: Currently in the top 10th percentile of stocks in terms of “trend strength”—our proprietary momentum metric.
- Revenue Growth: Alphabet saw revenue growth of 15.1% LTM and 12.5% for the last 3-year average, but this is not a growth story
- Room To Run: Despite its momentum, GOOGL stock is trading 9.5% below its 52-week high.
Below is a quick comparison of GOOGL fundamentals with S&P medians.
| GOOGL | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services | – |
| Industry | Interactive Media & Services | – |
| PS Ratio | 9.3 | 3.4 |
| PE Ratio | 28.4 | 25.0 |
|
|
||
| LTM* Revenue Growth | 15.1% | 6.4% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 12.5% | 5.6% |
|
|
||
| LTM* Operating Margin | 32.0% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 30.5% | 18.3% |
| LTM* Op Cash Flow Margin | 40.9% | 20.6% |
| 3Y Average Op Cash Flow Margin | 36.6% | 20.1% |
|
|
||
| DE Ratio | 1.6% | 20.1% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
The Bear View & The Current Investment Debate
The current investment debate on GOOGL is centered around the following: Bulls see the ~$180B FY26 capex surge as a necessary investment to secure AI dominance. Bears see it as a massive anchor on free cash flow with uncertain ROI.
The prevailing sentiment is bearish. The narrative is cracking. Despite blowout cloud growth (+48%), the shocking FY26 capex guidance and a wall of regulatory risk are overwhelming the bull case. FCF growth is already lagging sales. The market is now pricing in the cost of the AI war, not just the rewards.
| Bull View | Bear View |
|---|---|
| This investment will fuel accelerating, high-margin cloud revenue, evidenced by the $240B backlog, cementing a durable AI moat and justifying near-term cash burn. | The capex doubles previous estimates, pressuring FCF. This signals a costly arms race against Microsoft and OpenAI with no guarantee of profitable leadership. |
You can evaluate more on which view to bet on by visiting GOOGL Investment Highlights & Full Analysis
GOOGL Is Just One of Several Such Stocks
You could also check out:
We chose these stocks using the following criteria:
- Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
- High operating (or cash flow from operations) margins
- Low-debt capital structure
- Strong momentum
A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have performed as follows:
- Average 12-month forward returns of nearly 15%
- 12-month win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of about 60%
Advisors: Move Client Assets Beyond Single Stocks
Advisors win when clients stay the course. An institutional-grade asset allocation strategy helps you reduce volatility and strengthen client relationships.
Client trust is built on consistency. By partnering with our Boston-based wealth management team, advisors gain access to rigorous risk management strategies that look beyond equities. Their approach combines multi-asset diversification with high-conviction equity baskets, such as the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, to smooth out volatility and improve client outcomes.