How Will General Mills Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, December 16, 2025. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $19 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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General Mills’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 25% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.5%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/17/2025 | -0.8% | 2.0% | -2.5% |
| 6/25/2025 | -5.1% | -0.4% | -3.2% |
| 3/19/2025 | -2.1% | -4.4% | -5.6% |
| 12/18/2024 | -3.1% | -3.3% | -8.0% |
| 9/18/2024 | 0.7% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 6/26/2024 | -4.6% | -6.1% | -1.2% |
| 3/20/2024 | 1.2% | -0.4% | 1.5% |
| 12/20/2023 | -3.6% | -3.0% | -4.4% |
| 9/20/2023 | -0.0% | -1.0% | -3.2% |
| 6/28/2023 | -5.2% | -4.4% | -6.6% |
| 3/23/2023 | 2.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% |
| 12/20/2022 | -4.6% | -1.4% | -10.5% |
| 9/21/2022 | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% |
| 6/29/2022 | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| 3/23/2022 | 2.5% | 7.9% | 17.6% |
| 12/21/2021 | -4.0% | -1.3% | 1.8% |
| 9/22/2021 | 3.3% | 2.3% | 9.0% |
| 6/30/2021 | 1.5% | 0.6% | -1.0% |
| 3/24/2021 | -4.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| 12/17/2020 | 1.3% | 0.1% | -4.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -1.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 8.5% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -6.1% | -10.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -13.6% | 9.4% | 27.4% |
| 3Y History | -9.3% | 26.1% | 7.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of General Mills stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before General Mills. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| GIS Earnings Dates | GIS | CPB |
| 9/17/2025 | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 6/25/2025 | -5.1% | -9.0% |
| 3/19/2025 | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| 12/18/2024 | -3.1% | -8.5% |
| 9/18/2024 | 0.7% | 3.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -4.6% | 3.5% |
| 3/20/2024 | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| 12/20/2023 | -3.6% | -1.5% |
| 9/20/2023 | -0.0% | 2.4% |
| 6/28/2023 | -5.2% | -1.6% |
| 3/23/2023 | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| 12/20/2022 | -4.6% | 0.0% |
| 9/21/2022 | 5.7% | -1.7% |
| 6/29/2022 | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| 3/23/2022 | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 12/21/2021 | -4.0% | 1.1% |
| 9/22/2021 | 3.3% | -0.5% |
| 6/30/2021 | 1.5% | -0.7% |
| 3/24/2021 | -4.2% | 1.9% |
| CORRELATION | -10.9% |
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