Fox Stock Rallied 6% Last Week – What Should You Know?

Fox Corp stock (NASDAQ: FOX) rallied over 6% in the last five trading days and has outperformed the S&P 500 which has remained flat during this period. FOX now trades at $38. The recent rally was led by overall positive sentiment over increasing viewership and improvement in advertising demand on its network. In the beginning of March, Fox announced that it was the top-rated network in prime time cable for the month of February 2021. Additionally, its total day viewership of 1.3 million viewers surpassed ESPN as well. With viewership and advertising getting back on track gradually, FOX is expected to see improving results over the next few quarters. This, along with the viewership data, has enthused the markets recently. However, is FOX stock set to continue its upward trajectory or could we expect some correction? We believe, based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years, FOX stock has 40% chance of a rise in the next one month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on FOX Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: FOX 6.1%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event)

• FOX stock rose 6.1% over a five-day trading period ending 3/9/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P 500) rise of 0.5%
• A change of 6.1% or more over five trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 47 times out of 1256 in the last five years

Ten Days: FOX 16%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event)

• FOX stock rose 16% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P 500) rise of 0.2%
• A change of 16% or more over ten trading days is an <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 3 times out of 1240 in the last five years

Twenty-One Days: FOX 26%, vs. S&P500 0.09%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event)

• FOX stock rose 26% the last 21 trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P 500) rise of 0.09%
• A change of 26% or more over 21 trading days is an <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 4 times out of 1198 in the last five years

Out of 47 instances in the last five years that FOX stock saw a five-day rise of 6.1% or more, 19 of them resulted in FOX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 19 out of 47, or 40% chance of gain in FOX stock over the coming month.

While FOX stock may have moved a lot, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how how the stock valuation for Netflix vs Tyler Technologies shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

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