What’s Next For Figure Technology Stock?

Figure Technology Solutions stock (NASDAQ: FIGR) has surged over 46% year-to-date in early 2026, driven by strong Q4 2025 preliminary results, bullish analyst upgrades, and breakthrough developments in blockchain-based financial infrastructure. The stock’s momentum accelerated further this week following the company’s January 15 launch of its On-Chain Public Equity Network (OPEN) – a blockchain platform that enables direct stock lending without traditional intermediaries.

But the key question is – can this rally continue, or should investors lock in gains at current levels? We think there is more room for growth here. But before we dive into the details, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock like FIGR, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Separately, see – Can Archer Aviation Stock Double From Here?

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What’s Fueling This Rally?

Is the blockchain technology really that transformative? Absolutely. Figure’s blockchain-based platform processes home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) at a fraction of the time and cost compared to traditional lenders. Related – Figure Technology Stock: Not Just Another Crypto Play. The company achieved remarkable quarterly revenue growth of 86.8% to $135 million in its most recent quarter, crushing the S&P 500’s 7.3% growth rate. This operational efficiency translates directly to superior margins, with operating income margins of 21.2% versus 18.8% for the S&P 500, and net income margins of 32.9% versus 13.0% for the benchmark. Look at Figure’s financials for more details.

What about the stock lending platform launch? This represents a potential game-changer. On January 15, 2026, Figure unveiled OPEN, which allows companies to issue equity directly on Figure’s Provenance blockchain. Unlike synthetic tokenized stocks, OPEN’s tokens represent actual equity ownership that shareholders can lend or borrow against, completely bypassing traditional intermediaries like prime brokers, custodians, and exchanges. Figure plans to be the first company to issue equity on OPEN, having filed a public registration statement in November 2025, with OPEN-listed shares expected to be exchangeable with its Nasdaq-listed stock. Market participants, including Jump Trading and BitGo have already begun onboarding to provide market support and custody services.

What Could Drive FIGR Higher From Here?

Can the company sustain its growth trajectory? Multiple tailwinds suggest yes. Bernstein elevated FIGR to its 2026 “top pick” with a $72 price target, citing 38% upside potential, while Piper Sandler raised its target to $75. The firm highlighted that Figure’s blockchain-based tokenized credit platform drove 46% of Q4’s $2.7 billion loan volume and achieved over 130% year-over-year growth despite December traditionally being a slower period.

What about regulatory support? Regulatory tailwinds from the proposed Clarity Act can provide a much-needed regulatory framework for blockchain-based financial products. This has the potential to significantly reduce operational uncertainty and accelerate institutional adoption of Figure’s platforms.

Where else is Figure expanding? The company is diversifying beyond HELOCs into debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) loans, small business lending, and crypto-backed loans through its partner-led model, which allows for rapid scaling and access to new lending markets. Figure’s CEO also announced aggressive European expansion plans to capture untapped international opportunities. Additionally, the tokenization of real-world asset markets has reached $19.38 billion in distributed value, with blockchain enabling 24/7 secondary markets and reducing transaction costs from 5-8% to 0.1-0.5%.

What Are the Risks That Could Derail This Story?

• Is regulatory risk overblown or legitimate? It’s a legitimate concern. The SEC’s ongoing scrutiny of blockchain-based financial products poses a significant risk, particularly for Figure’s home equity lending and securitization operations. A single regulatory misstep could derail investor confidence and disrupt the company’s business model.
• What about competitive threats? Competition in fintech and blockchain is intensifying rapidly. Traditional lenders and tech giants are increasingly investing in decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions, which could erode Figure’s first-mover advantage. The company must continuously innovate to maintain its competitive edge in a market where competitors are ramping up technological advancements while cutting costs.
• Are there macroeconomic concerns? Yes. Broader macroeconomic headwinds could impact lending volumes and credit quality, potentially pressuring Figure’s growth assumptions. The company’s low return on capital of 15% also reflects some struggle in generating returns befitting its capital deployment.

Also, investing in a single stock without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

Valuation: Expensive But Justified?

Figure’s valuation metrics appear stretched compared to the S&P 500. The company trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 16.0 versus 3.3 for the benchmark, a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 56.3 versus 21.6, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.7 versus 24.2.

However, the company’s fundamentals provide some justification. Operating income over the last four quarters totaled $80 million on revenues of $377 million, producing a considerably high operating margin. Net income reached $124 million, representing a net margin of 32.9% that significantly exceeds the S&P 500’s 13.0%.

The Bottom Line

Figure Technology Solutions represents a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The company’s blockchain innovations, particularly the OPEN platform for direct stock lending, position it at the forefront of financial technology transformation. With strong fundamentals backing its lofty valuation—including 86.8% revenue growth and 32.9% net margins—FIGR has catalysts to drive further appreciation.

However, investors must recognize this is not a low-risk stock. Regulatory uncertainty, intensifying competition, and stretched valuations create genuine downside scenarios. If regulators crack down on blockchain-based securities or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious expansion plans, the stock could experience sharp corrections. For investors who can stomach significant volatility and have a 2-3 year investment horizon, FIGR may offer robust returns as the tokenization of real-world assets continues accelerating.

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