How Low Can Fair Isaac Stock Really Go?
Fair Isaac (FICO) continues to execute on its core scoring business and FICO Platform transition, supported by robust demand and AI innovation. But as investors weigh the durability of earnings in a more uncertain macro backdrop, it’s worth asking: how well could FICO withstand potential market shifts?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Fair Isaac stands today.
- Size: Fair Isaac is a $40 Bil company with $2.0 Bil in revenue currently trading at $1,690.62.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 15.9% and operating margin of 47.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.08 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.07
- Valuation: Fair Isaac stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 62.0 and P/EBIT multiple of 43.2
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 66.3% within a year. See FICO Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive. For details, see Buy or Sell FICO Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors looking to add FICO to their portfolio: how resilient is FICO stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose FICO stock falls 20-30% to $1183 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- FICO stock fell 38.2% from a high of $552.88 on 23 July 2021 to $341.44 on 9 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 November 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $2,382.40 on 26 November 2024 , and currently trades at $1,690.62
| FICO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -38.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 185 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- FICO stock fell 50.9% from a high of $431.78 on 19 February 2020 to $212.00 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 July 2020
| FICO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 133 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- FICO stock fell 28.6% from a high of $240.03 on 14 September 2018 to $171.50 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 February 2019
| FICO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -28.6% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 51 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- FICO stock fell 76.2% from a high of $41.67 on 19 January 2007 to $9.90 on 5 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 March 2012
| FICO | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -76.2% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about FICO stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
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