FICO Shares Tumbled 23%, Opportunity Or Trap?
Fair Isaac stock has fallen by 23.2% in less than a month, from levels of $1869.83 on 7/7/2025 to $1436.72 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Fair Isaac passes basic quality checks. However, it only has one past instance where it dipped sharply (>30% in 30 days), and returned 66% in one year and 89% as peak return subsequently. FICO develops analytic software and data solutions enabling businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions through scoring and software services for improved transaction analytics.
Price behaviour is one thing, but what do the fundamentals say? Read Buy or Sell FICO Stock to see the full picture.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.8% |
| 3M | 44.5% |
| 6M | 48.1% |
| 12M | 66.3% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
FICO had 1 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 89% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 280 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -24% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | FICO Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | FICO | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 66% | 89% | -24% | 280 | ||||
| 3122020 | -32% | -24% | 66% | 89% | -24% | 280 | ||
Fair Isaac Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 14.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 10.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 38.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 7.0 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 1.3 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.