Ford’s Stock Fell 20% The Last Two Weeks, Will It Rise Again?

+78.36%
Upside
10.82
Market
19.30
Trefis
F: Ford Motor logo
F
Ford Motor

Ford’s stock (NYSE: F) declined by 20% in the last ten trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index declined by 8.4% over the same period. The fall was seemed to be triggered over rising interest rates which could lead to a fall in sales volume. Further, the overall fall in the market also played its part in the decline. Ford reports FY 2021 results on Thursday February 3. Now, is F stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in F stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Ford’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: F -9.7%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Underperformed market

(2% event probability)

  • Ford’s stock declined 9.7% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 3.5%
  • A change of -9.7% or more over five trading days has a 2% event probability, which has occurred 39 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
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Ten Days: F -20%, vs. S&P500 -8.4%; Underperformed market

(<1% event probability)

  • Ford’s stock declined 20% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 8.4%
  • A change of -20% or more over ten trading days has a less than 1% event probability, which has occurred 9 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: F -5.8%, vs. S&P500 -9.6%; Outperformed market

(18% event probability)

  • Ford’s stock declined 5.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 9.6%
  • A change of -5.8% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 18% event probability, which has occurred 448 times out of 2515 in the last ten years

While Ford’s stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a Better Bet Than F StockCheck out how Ford’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 F Return -6% -6% 61%
 S&P 500 Return -9% -9% 93%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -14% -14% 242%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/28/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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