National Vision Stock To $18?
National Vision (EYE) stock has fallen by 13.5% in less than a month, from $29.07 on 5th Mar, 2026 to $25.14 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $18 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell National Vision Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on EYE stock to help you make the decision. The bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -6.1%, even though median peak return was 23%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -8.6% |
| 3M | -5.1% |
| 6M | -12.0% |
| 12M | -6.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
EYE had 9 events since 10/26/2017 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 23% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 225 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -45% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | EYE Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | EYE | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -6% | 23% | -45% | 225 | ||||
| 8122024 | -21% | -2% | 120% | 147% | -6% | 345 | ||
| 4222024 | -23% | -2% | -34% | 2% | -48% | 1 | ||
| 7272023 | -28% | 4% | -28% | 23% | -37% | 225 | ||
| 3012023 | -42% | -1% | 3% | 18% | -39% | 104 | ||
| 5092022 | -23% | -12% | -32% | 29% | -49% | 269 | ||
| 11292021 | -26% | 4% | -17% | 5% | -51% | 35 | ||
| 3122020 | -22% | -24% | 73% | 88% | -50% | 306 | ||
| 9202019 | -22% | 2% | 50% | 59% | -45% | 347 | ||
| 12072018 | -22% | -1% | -6% | 9% | -30% | 84 | ||
National Vision Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 9.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 6.6% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 7.4% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 2.3 |
Not sure if you can take a call on EYE stock? Consider portfolio approach
The Best Investors Think In Portfolios
Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.