How Will Expedia’s Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 8, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 40 cents per share on $3.01 billion in revenue. This would represent a 90% year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings and a 4% increase in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 21 cents per share and $2.89 billion in revenue. Historically, EXPE stock has shown a tendency to outperform following earnings announcements, having increased 56% of the time with a median one-day rise of 5.5% and a maximum observed increase of 19%.

The company is capitalizing on global travel demand and improved margins across its B2B and B2C segments. Strategic investments in AI and the “One Key” loyalty program are enhancing customer retention, while targeted share buybacks support shareholder value. With a current market capitalization of $21 billion, Expedia has generated $14 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving $1.3 billion in operating profit and $1.2 billion in net income.

For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Expedia’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 70% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.5%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -11%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

EXPE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Expedia stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Expedia. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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