Exact Sciences Stock To $71?

Exact Sciences (EXAS) stock has jumped 17% during the past day, and is currently trading at $100.67. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell EXAS stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $71 may not be out of reach. We believe there is a near-equal mix of good and bad in EXAS stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

Don’t get too attached to EXAS stock, even if you love it. Stocks crash. High Quality Portfolio lets you navigate that risk.

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $19 Bil in market cap, Exact Sciences provides cancer screening and diagnostic tests, including Cologuard, a non-invasive DNA stool test for colorectal cancer, and Oncotype DX, gene expression tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how EXAS is valued vs broader market. For more details see: EXAS Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• Exact Sciences has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 15.5% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 14% from $2.7 Bil to $3.1 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 20.0% to $851 Mil in the most recent quarter from $709 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how EXAS is growing vs broader market. For more details see: EXAS Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• EXAS last 12 month operating income was $-155 Mil representing operating margin of -5.0%
• With cash flow margin of 12.6%, it generated nearly $387 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, EXAS generated nearly $-987 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -32.0%

This table highlights how EXAS profitability vs broader market. For more details see: EXAS Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• EXAS Debt was $2.5 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $19 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 13.2%
• EXAS Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.0 Bil of $5.9 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 17.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak

EXAS has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• EXAS stock fell 80.4% from a high of $155.01 on 12 February 2021 to $30.35 on 14 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is $100.67 on 20 November 2025 $100.67

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• EXAS stock fell 63.7% from a high of $104.44 on 10 January 2020 to $37.90 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 October 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• EXAS stock fell 94.2% from a high of $6.02 on 16 October 2007 to $0.35 on 24 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 September 2010

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read EXAS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.