A 9-Day Losing Streak Has EMCOR Stock Down 16%
Shares of EMCOR (EME) have closed lower in each of the last 9 sessions, a cumulative decline of 16.3%. That erased about $5.7 billion from the company’s market value, which now stands at about $29.3 billion. The stock closed at $660.41 on Thursday, October 22, 29.9% below its 52-week high of $942.76 and 13.8% above its low of $580.33.
How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500
Returns for EME and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Thursday, October 22 and including dividends:
| Return Period | EME | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | -5.5% | -1.2% |
| 9 Days (Current Streak) | -16.3% | -1.9% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | -12.1% | -0.5% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | -11.3% | 3.7% |
| Year To Date | 8.2% | 13.0% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | -4.1% | 15.1% |
A Stock-Specific Slide, Or A Market Move?
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 1.9% over the same 9 sessions, including dividends, against EMCOR’s -16.3%. 1 other S&P 500 stock is currently on losing streaks of 9 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is down 11.3%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 54 sessions of that window it was up 6.0%.
Is The Business As Weak As The Stock?
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 18.9% over the last twelve months, against a median of 7.7% for S&P 500 Industrials stocks; its operating margin is 9.6%, versus a median of 17.6%; and the stock trades at 20.4 times trailing earnings against a median of 26.6. On these numbers the business looks sturdier than the stock, with revenue growth above the median and a multiple below the median.
If the drop has you weighing an entry, resist buying on price alone. Our Buy the Dip screen ranks the marked-down names where growth and cash generation still hold up.
Weakness In One Name Should Be Noise, Not News
For a diversified holder, a streak like this is a data point. For a concentrated one, it is a hole in the plan. The difference is never the stock; it is the portfolio built around it.
Building that portfolio is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does: roughly 30 businesses with the cash generation and balance-sheet strength to absorb a bad month, selected and rebalanced by rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Make the next streak, in either direction, someone else’s drama.