ELV Lost 28% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait?
Elevance Health (ELV) stock is down 28.5% in 21 trading days. Already own the stock? You might want to consider holding it. Planning to buy? This might be your opportunity. Consider the following data:
- A $64 Bil company with $183 Bil in revenue currently trading at $283.08.
- Last 12 month revenue growth of 6.6% and operating margin of 0.0%.
- Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.5 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.3
- Currently trading at P/E multiple of 10.8 and P/EBIT multiple of 7.1
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 85.7% within a year. See ELV Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for ELV, see Buy or Sell ELV Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and ELV drops another 20-30% to $198.16 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into Elevance Health (ELV) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.
ELV provides comprehensive health benefits and solutions—medical, digital, pharmacy, behavioral, and clinical—serving 118 million people to support healthier lives and care journeys.
2022 Inflation Shock
- ELV stock fell 24.3% from a high of $546.77 on 31 October 2022 to $414.13 on 12 July 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 May 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $562.29 on 3 September 2024 , and currently trades at $283.08
| ELV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -24.3% | -25.4% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 310 | 464 |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ELV stock fell 43.2% from a high of $307.74 on 10 January 2020 to $174.68 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 October 2020
| ELV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -43.2% | -33.9% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 214 | 148 |
2018 Correction
- ELV stock fell 25.6% from a high of $317.42 on 26 February 2019 to $236.25 on 17 April 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 November 2020
| ELV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -25.6% | -19.8% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 567 | 120 |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- ELV stock fell 67.2% from a high of $89.72 on 24 December 2007 to $29.44 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 November 2013
| ELV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -67.2% | -56.8% |
| # of Days for Full Recovery | 1821 | 1480 |
Worried that ELV could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.