Elanco (NASDAQ: ELAN), an animal health products company, has seen a 17% fall in a month, underperforming the broader S&P500, which is down 9%. Elanco’s Seresto flea-and-tick collar is linked to around 100,000 incidents and 2,500 pet deaths, and the company was asked to recall the product voluntarily.  The concerns around the collar are likely to impact the sales growth for the company in the near term, weighing on its stock.
But now that ELAN stock has seen a fall of 17% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a very high chance of a rise for Elanco stock over the next month. Of 41 instances in the last four years that ELAN stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 17% or more, 36 resulted in ELAN stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 36 out of 41, or about an 88% chance of a rise in ELAN stock over the next month. See our analysis of Elanco Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last four years’ data
- After moving 0.7% or more over five days, the stock rose on 52% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving 0.3% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 44% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -17.0% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 88% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
Elanco (ELAN) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: PAHC highest at 1.5%; MRK lowest at -2.1%
- Ten-Day Return: ZTS highest at 9.7%; ELAN lowest at 0.3%
- Twenty-One Day Return: MRK highest at 2.7%; ELAN lowest at -17.0%
|S&P 500 Return||1%||-20%||71%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||3%||-25%||200%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/5/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
- Seresto flea collar should be recalled after 2,500 pet deaths, lawmakers say, Aimee Picchi CBS News, June 17, 2022 [↩]