How Will Estee Lauder Companies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Estee Lauder Companies (NYSE:EL) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $27 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $15 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $-178 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Estee Lauder Companies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 15 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 25% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 15 negative returns = -7.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | -11.9% | -22.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -6.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | -1.2% | 12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | -17.0% | -12.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -20.9% | -27.4% | -16.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | -2.2% | -1.3% | -6.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -13.2% | -11.7% | -17.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | 12.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% |
| 11/1/2023 | -18.9% | -10.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/18/2023 | -3.3% | -7.0% | -4.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -17.3% | -17.9% | -25.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -4.4% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| 11/2/2022 | -8.1% | 0.5% | 12.5% |
| 8/18/2022 | 1.8% | -4.0% | -13.2% |
| 5/3/2022 | -5.8% | -10.4% | -3.7% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.0% | 0.3% | -10.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 7.5% | 0.2% |
| 8/19/2021 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 0.4% |
| 5/3/2021 | -7.9% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 7.5% | 12.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -27.4% | -25.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -33.2% | -33.9% | -16.6% |
| 3Y History | -40.4% | -26.8% | -11.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Estee Lauder Companies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Estee Lauder Companies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| EL Earnings Dates | EL | PG |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | 6.5% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -1.9% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | 1.9% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | 2.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -20.9% | -3.6% |
| 8/19/2024 | -2.2% | 4.2% |
| 5/1/2024 | -13.2% | 3.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | 12.0% | 2.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | -18.9% | 0.3% |
| 8/18/2023 | -3.3% | -2.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -17.3% | 0.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | -4.4% | -0.2% |
| 11/2/2022 | -8.1% | 3.3% |
| 8/18/2022 | 1.8% | 7.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | -5.8% | -4.0% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.0% | 1.9% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| 8/19/2021 | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| CORRELATION | -30.7% |
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