Down 4% Last Week, Will The Tides Turn For Estee Lauder Stock Soon?

Estee Lauder stock (NYSE: EL) is down more than 4% in the past week (five trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down around 2% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -3.3% and 3,3%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. Estee Lauder’s recent strong Q2 ’22 earnings saw revenue jump to $5.54 billion from $4.85 billion in Q2 ’21 (EL’s fiscal year ends in June). As cost of sales and other operating expenses rose at a much slower rate, operating income jumped almost 1.4x to $1.42 billion in Q2 ’22. Despite a higher effective tax rate, EL’s EPS rose from $2.40 in Q2 ’21 to $3.02 in Q2 ’22. While the stock rallied initially after the earnings announcement, the stock has since pulled back amidst geopolitical tensions and investors booking profits.

Now, is EL stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a decent 60% chance of a rise in EL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on EL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about EL revenues and comparison to peers, see Estee Lauder (EL) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: EL 3.3%, vs. S&P500 7.5%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• EL stock rose 3.3% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.5%
• A change of 3.3% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 1007 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 1007 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 606 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: EL -3.3%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Underperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• EL stock lost 3.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.3%
• A change of -3.3% or more over ten trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 399 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 399 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 231 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: EL -4.3%, vs. S&P500 -2.3%; Underperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

• EL stock dropped 4.3% over a five-day trading period ending 4/5/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.3%
• A change of -4.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 197 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 197 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 114 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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