After Strong Post-Earnings Rally, Estee Lauder Stock Looks Poised For Further Gains

Estee Lauder stock (NYSE: EL) is up 11% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 4%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 0.3% and 7%, beating the market on both occasions. Estee Lauder reported stellar Q1 ’22 earnings early last month (EL’s fiscal year ends in June), with revenue jumping from $3.56 billion in Q1 ’21 to $4.39 billion in Q1 ’22, as demand picked up strongly. With COGS and operating expenses not rising as quickly, operating margins rose from 19.8% to 21.3% over this period. Lower non-operating expenses outweighed a slightly higher effective tax rate, and EPS rose from $1.44 in Q1 ’21 to $1.91 in Q1 ’22. The stock’s sharp rise was clearly a reaction to the company’s strong earnings growth.

Now, is Estee Lauder stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 64% chance of a rise in EL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on EL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about EL historical returns and comparison to peers, see Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: EL 11%, vs. S&P500 3.8%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• EL stock rose 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.8%
• A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 183 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 183 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 117 occasions
• This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: EL 7%, vs. S&P500 3.3%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• EL stock rose 7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.3%
• A change of 7% or more over ten trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 177 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 177 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 94 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: EL 0.3%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Outperformed market

(57% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

• EL stock rose a marginal 0.3% over a five-day trading period ending 12/31/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.5%
• A change of 0.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 57% likelihood event, which has occurred 1432 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 1432 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 782 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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