eBay Stock Lost 8% In One Week, What’s Next?

eBay stock (NASDAQ: EBAY) has lost 7.8% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 6.2%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-16% vs -11%) and one month period (-18% vs -13%). Notably, the recent stock market volatility was due to high inflation levels, aggressive interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions. The Fed has increased the interest rates five times in the year, with more hikes to follow. While it is aimed at taming inflation, it also has the potential to push the economy into recession.

The company operates an online marketplace “eBay.com”, where third-party buyers and sellers can transact in a variety of products (both new and used goods). It neither owns the inventory nor handles the shipping & handling of goods, making the business model asset light. While the firm’s net transaction revenues decreased 8% y-o-y in Q2 due to a drop in website traffic, it is to be noted that web traffic volume was at very high levels in 2021. We expect the revenues to continue to suffer over the subsequent quarters.

Now, is eBay stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 73% chance of a rise in eBay stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on eBay Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: EBAY -18%, vs. S&P500 -13%; Underperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 73% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• eBay stock lost 18% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 13%
• A change of -18% or more over twenty-one trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 11 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 11 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 8 occasions
• This points to a 73% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: EBAY -16%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Underperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• eBay stock decreased 16% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 11%
• A change of -16% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 9 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 9 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 5 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: EBAY -7.8%, vs. S&P500 -6.2%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 45% probability of rise over next five days)

• eBay stock lost 7.8% over a five-day trading period ending 09/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 6.2%
• A change of -7.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 76 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 76 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 34 occasions
• This points to a 45% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how eBay Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates