How Will Duke Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is set to report its earnings on Friday, November 7, 2025. The company has $96 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $31 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what the long-term performance for your portfolio could be if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.
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Duke Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 0.9%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -0.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -8.0% | -5.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.4% | -2.1% | 4.4% |
| 8/8/2023 | 0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.1% | -3.1% | -5.2% |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.6% | 1.8% | -2.5% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.5% | 1.7% | 8.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.5% | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.5% | -0.9% | 1.8% |
| 2/10/2022 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 5/10/2021 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.5% | -3.5% | -1.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.9% | 3.2% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -8.0% | -5.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.3% | -51.2% | -13.2% |
| 3Y History | -17.3% | -56.4% | -31.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Duke Energy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Duke Energy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUK Earnings Dates | DUK | NEE | AEP | EXC | EIX |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | -2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 6.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.1% | N/A* | -0.7% | N/A* |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | -5.8% | N/A* | 0.2% | N/A* |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -12.2% | 0.1% | -4.1% | -2.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | -1.8% | 6.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 8.7% | N/A* | 0.1% | N/A* |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | -2.9% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.4% | 8.7% | N/A* | N/A* | -0.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 0.7% | -8.9% | -5.2% | -3.4% | -0.5% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.1% | -2.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | N/A* |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.6% | -4.3% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.5% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | -2.4% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 5.3% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.5% | -7.2% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/10/2022 | -0.0% | 0.5% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.7% | 1.0% | -1.0% | 0.1% | -0.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 1.9% | -3.5% |
| 5/10/2021 | 2.9% | -4.1% | N/A* | 2.3% | N/A* |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.5% | -1.5% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -8.2% | -63.8% | 6.7% | -31.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DUK
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