How Will Docusign Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Docusign (NASDAQ:DOCU) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 4, 2026. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $299 Mil in operating profits and net income of $309 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Docusign’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -13%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/17/2026 | 2.9% | -2.9% | -3.1% |
| 12/4/2025 | -7.6% | -1.2% | -2.2% |
| 9/4/2025 | 4.7% | 5.2% | -8.5% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.0% | -18.2% | -14.3% |
| 3/13/2025 | 14.8% | 13.9% | -0.5% |
| 12/5/2024 | 27.9% | 13.0% | 5.5% |
| 9/5/2024 | 4.0% | -0.8% | 12.1% |
| 6/6/2024 | -4.7% | -6.3% | -4.9% |
| 12/7/2023 | 4.8% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| 9/7/2023 | -3.7% | -13.8% | -19.2% |
| 6/8/2023 | -2.5% | -7.2% | -11.5% |
| 9/8/2022 | 10.5% | 4.0% | -17.5% |
| 6/9/2022 | -24.5% | -35.0% | -28.1% |
| 3/10/2022 | -20.1% | -7.1% | 8.6% |
| 12/2/2021 | -42.2% | -36.1% | -32.9% |
| 9/2/2021 | 5.3% | -5.9% | -16.3% |
| 6/3/2021 | 19.8% | 24.8% | 43.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 13.4% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -13.3% | -7.1% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 24.8% | 43.2% |
| Max Negative | -42.2% | -36.1% | -32.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.7% | -38.5% | 1.0% |
| 3Y History | -10.5% | -45.2% | -8.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Docusign stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Docusign. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DOCU Earnings Dates | DOCU | DBX | BOX |
| 3/17/2026 | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| 12/4/2025 | -7.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% |
| 9/4/2025 | 4.7% | 12.3% | 5.1% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.0% | -0.6% | 20.6% |
| 3/13/2025 | 14.8% | -23.0% | -9.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 27.9% | N/A* | -6.9% |
| 9/5/2024 | 4.0% | 8.8% | 13.6% |
| 6/6/2024 | -4.7% | -6.7% | 7.5% |
| 12/7/2023 | 4.8% | N/A* | -9.3% |
| 9/7/2023 | -3.7% | N/A* | -15.8% |
| 6/8/2023 | -2.5% | N/A* | 3.2% |
| 9/8/2022 | 10.5% | N/A* | -9.1% |
| 6/9/2022 | -24.5% | N/A* | -0.3% |
| 3/10/2022 | -20.1% | -10.6% | 0.0% |
| 12/2/2021 | -42.2% | -21.1% | 11.8% |
| 9/2/2021 | 5.3% | 1.7% | -1.9% |
| CORRELATION | 14.4% | -50.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DOCU
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