How Will Dollar Tree Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 28, 2026. The company has $19 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $19 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Dollar Tree’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -10%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/16/2026 | 6.4% | -1.4% | -6.3% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.6% | 9.8% | 18.0% |
| 9/3/2025 | -8.4% | -13.5% | -18.9% |
| 6/4/2025 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 7.8% |
| 3/26/2025 | 3.1% | 12.2% | 21.0% |
| 12/4/2024 | 1.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/4/2024 | -22.2% | -19.9% | -14.9% |
| 6/5/2024 | -4.9% | -8.9% | -11.3% |
| 3/13/2024 | -14.2% | -14.4% | -13.0% |
| 11/29/2023 | 4.4% | 10.1% | 22.6% |
| 8/24/2023 | -12.9% | -12.5% | -26.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | -12.0% | -16.6% | -7.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | 2.0% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
| 11/22/2022 | -7.8% | -11.3% | -15.2% |
| 8/25/2022 | -10.2% | -18.3% | -14.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | 21.9% | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| 3/2/2022 | 0.2% | 5.1% | 14.8% |
| 11/23/2021 | 9.2% | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| 8/26/2021 | -12.1% | -15.4% | -20.5% |
| 5/27/2021 | -7.7% | -7.3% | -9.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 9.8% | 16.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.2% | -12.5% | -13.9% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| Max Negative | -22.2% | -19.9% | -26.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -4.2% | 8.0% | 28.1% |
| 3Y History | 9.6% | 25.4% | 50.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Dollar Tree stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Dollar Tree. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR Earnings Dates | DLTR | WMT | TGT |
| 3/16/2026 | 6.4% | 0.9% | N/A* |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% |
| 9/3/2025 | -8.4% | 1.5% | -6.4% |
| 6/4/2025 | -8.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 3/26/2025 | 3.1% | N/A* | -9.4% |
| 12/4/2024 | 1.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% |
| 9/4/2024 | -22.2% | 5.8% | -4.3% |
| 6/5/2024 | -4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| 3/13/2024 | -14.2% | 4.5% | -1.1% |
| 11/29/2023 | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 8/24/2023 | -12.9% | 0.8% | -3.6% |
| 5/25/2023 | -12.0% | -3.5% | -12.6% |
| 3/1/2023 | 2.0% | -4.9% | -3.6% |
| 11/22/2022 | -7.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 8/25/2022 | -10.2% | -2.5% | -4.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 21.9% | -4.1% | 1.0% |
| 3/2/2022 | 0.2% | -2.0% | 2.5% |
| 11/23/2021 | 9.2% | 1.8% | -1.8% |
| 8/26/2021 | -12.1% | -2.2% | 0.6% |
| CORRELATION | -63.5% | -49.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DLTR
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