DraftKings Stock To $24?
DraftKings (DKNG) stock has fallen by 23.4% in less than a month, from $43.84 on 9/22/2025 to $33.60 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $24 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on DKNG stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 11% in one year, and 48% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, DKNG provides digital sports entertainment, daily sports betting, iGaming opportunities, and develops licensing software for online and retail sportsbooks and casino gaming platforms across multiple channels.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell DraftKings Stock to see the full picture.
DKNG stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it relatively expensive. While this may feel like an opportunity, there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner – whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.
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Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 8.0% |
| 3M | 25.2% |
| 6M | 5.1% |
| 12M | 10.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
DKNG had 8 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 48% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 132 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -2.3% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | DKNG Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | DKNG | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 11% | 48% | -2% | 132 | ||||
| 10102025 | -32% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 5 | ||
| 3312025 | -38% | -8% | 3% | 45% | -5% | 150 | ||
| 4122022 | -30% | 2% | 17% | 27% | -37% | 125 | ||
| 12012021 | -36% | -0% | -50% | 7% | -67% | 7 | ||
| 5122021 | -31% | 3% | -76% | 51% | -76% | 120 | ||
| 10302020 | -36% | -1% | 38% | 103% | 0% | 140 | ||
| 7142020 | -31% | 5% | 48% | 138% | 0% | 248 | ||
| 4012020 | -35% | -27% | 434% | 512% | 0% | 352 | ||
DraftKings Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 25.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 53.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 9.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -15.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 68.7 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.