How Much Upside Is Left In Disney Stock?
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Walt Disney (DIS) stock returned 11.6% in the three months ending October 26, 2026, outperforming the 3.6% return for the S&P 500. Over the full year to that date, however, the shares lost 0.9% while the index gained 15.3%. Investors who bought in late July hold a gain, and those who waited have missed part of the advance. How much could the shares still make over the next three years?
Disney Stock Could Gain About 12% In Three Years
Based on Trefis assumptions, Disney stock would be worth about 12.1% more three years after its October 26, 2026 close. That translates to an annual gain of about 3.9% without counting dividends. Under this scenario, revenue grows each year at 1.25 times the pace seen over the latest four fiscal quarters, the net margin finishes slightly below current levels, and the P/E stays where it is now. The table below compares Disney today against the projections for year three:
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $98.9 billion | $117 billion |
| Net margin | 8.7% | 8.3% |
| Earnings | $8.60 billion | $9.64 billion |
| P/E | 22.3 | 22.3 |
| Share price | $110.40 | $123.73 |
Rising sales drive all of the projected gain. Higher revenue would account for more than the entire increase in value, while the lower net margin offsets a portion of it. Among Disney’s three segments in fiscal 2025, Experiences grew the fastest. This division, which includes the parks and Disney Cruise Line, posted a 5.9% revenue increase to $36.2 billion, outpacing both Entertainment and Sports.
Can Disney Keep Its Revenue Growing This Fast?
Disney has accelerated its revenue growth in every quarter of fiscal 2026 so far. Revenue rose 5.2% from a year earlier in the first quarter and 6.5% in the second. For the third quarter ending June 27, 2026, growth reached 6.8%. This exceeds the yearly pace modeled in the scenario, so Disney is already keeping up with the projections in its two latest quarters.
During the August 5 call, management said Experiences and streaming are the company’s growth drivers right now. The Experiences division generated record quarterly revenue of $10 billion in the third quarter, climbing 10% from the same period a year earlier, and attendance at Disney’s domestic parks rose 3%.
Not every park is doing as well: management said consumers at the Shanghai and Hong Kong parks were weaker in the third quarter, and that this was continuing into the fourth. The company’s August 5 outlook focuses on profit rather than sales, with adjusted earnings per share expected to grow 16% in fiscal 2026 and 10% in fiscal 2027. The Trefis scenario uses a different structure. It models reported net income rather than adjusted earnings and holds the share count steady at today’s level, so its earnings grow more slowly than that guidance.
How Would Disney’s Upside Change In Other Scenarios?
Each row below changes one assumption and keeps the other two at their scenario values:
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 12.1% |
| Revenue growth of 3.7% a year instead of 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Net margin of 7.2% in year three instead of 8.3% | -2.1% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 25.3% |
The net margin acts as the only drag on the projected gain. Trefis calculates this metric using 70% of today’s margin plus 30% of Disney’s lower average across the 12 quarter-ends from July 2023 to March 2026. Today’s margin, covering the four quarters to June 2026, sits above that average but remains below the 11.5% to 13.1% range recorded during the four twelve-month periods just before it. Revenue growth over the latest four quarters, 4.6%, trailed the 5.0% pace from the previous year, though it exceeded the 2.5% rate logged the year before that. That span includes a 0.5% revenue dip in the quarter to September 2025, before the faster growth of fiscal 2026.
Testing each of the three assumptions on its own, with the other two matching the scenario, revenue growth could slow to 1.8% a year before three years of owning Disney stock return nothing. That compares with a 4.6% growth rate over the latest twelve months. The net margin could fall to 7.4% in year three before the gain disappears, against 8.7% over the latest twelve months. A P/E of 19.9 in year three, compared with 22.3 today, would leave the shares at today’s price.
Disney is expected to report its fiscal fourth quarter in November 2026, and year-over-year revenue growth is the measure to watch in that release. The quarter contains the extra 53rd week of Disney’s fiscal 2026, so the added week will account for part of any rise from a year earlier.
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