How Will Walt Disney Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, November 13, 2025. The company has $207 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $95 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $14 Bil in operating profits and net income of $12 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Walt Disney’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.7% | -3.9% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.8% | 20.8% | 22.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.4% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
| 11/14/2024 | 6.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.5% | -4.9% | -1.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | -9.5% | -9.1% | -12.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 6.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| 8/9/2023 | 4.9% | -1.3% | -6.8% |
| 5/10/2023 | -8.7% | -8.3% | -9.1% |
| 2/8/2023 | -1.3% | -2.3% | -16.3% |
| 11/8/2022 | -13.2% | -4.4% | -7.4% |
| 8/10/2022 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | -0.9% | -0.9% | -5.5% |
| 2/9/2022 | 3.3% | 6.2% | -10.5% |
| 11/10/2021 | -7.1% | -9.8% | -12.5% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.0% | -3.4% | 3.2% |
| 5/13/2021 | -2.6% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| 2/11/2021 | -1.7% | -3.8% | 3.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 11.2% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -3.9% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 20.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -9.8% | -16.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 19.0% | 6.8% | 13.3% |
| 3Y History | 42.1% | 33.8% | 41.4% |
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