Toll Brothers or D.R. Horton: Which Stock Has More Upside?
D.R. Horton fell -15% during the past Month. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer Toll Brothers gives you more. Toll Brothers (TOL) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs D.R. Horton (DHI) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in TOL
- TOL’s quarterly revenue growth was 15.4%, vs. DHI’s -9.5%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 4.6%, ahead of DHI’s -8.6%.
- TOL leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 15.3% and 3-year average of 17.1%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how DHI’s fundamentals stack up against those of TOL on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| DHI | TOL | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 10.1 | 7.9 | TOL |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | -9.5% | 15.4% | TOL |
| Last 12 Months | -8.6% | 4.6% | TOL |
| Last 3 Year Average | 0.1% | 3.2% | TOL |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 12.3% | 15.3% | TOL |
| Last 3 Year Average | 15.0% | 17.1% | TOL |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 50.3% | 152.1% | TOL |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: DHI Revenue Comparison | TOL Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: DHI Operating Income Comparison | TOL Operating Income Comparison
See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell TOL Stock and Buy or Sell DHI Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| DHI Return | 59% | -17% | 72% | -7% | 4% | -1% | 117% | ||
| TOL Return | 68% | -30% | 109% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 246% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 78% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| DHI Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 58% | ||
| TOL Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 83% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 64% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | 60% | ||
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| DHI Max Drawdown | -4% | -44% | 0% | -11% | -17% | -3% | -13% | ||
| TOL Max Drawdown | -3% | -43% | 0% | -6% | -28% | -0% | -13% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | -8% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/17/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read TOL Dip Buyer Analyses and DHI Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about DHI or TOL? Consider portfolio approach.
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Stocks can jump or crash but long term success comes from staying invested. The right portfolio helps you ride gains and cushion single stock drops.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.