How Will AppLovin Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $161 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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AppLovin’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 83% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 22%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -5.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 34.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.1% | 0.8% | -6.9% |
| 8/9/2023 | 26.5% | 32.8% | 43.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 23.5% | 36.9% | 27.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | 27.1% | 33.0% | -2.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 18.5% | 6.0% | -24.6% |
| 8/10/2022 | -14.8% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| 5/11/2022 | 34.7% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | -6.7% | -16.9% | -20.8% |
| 11/10/2021 | 20.0% | 10.1% | -5.3% |
| 8/11/2021 | -2.6% | 9.0% | 32.3% |
| 5/12/2021 | -4.6% | 23.7% | 57.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 21.7% | 23.5% | 32.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -13.3% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -1.2% | -14.3% | 24.5% |
| 3Y History | 9.3% | 5.9% | 8.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of AppLovin stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before AppLovin. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| APP Earnings Dates | APP | META |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -0.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 8.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 7.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | -3.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 3.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | -4.2% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 19.9% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.1% | 6.8% |
| 8/9/2023 | 26.5% | 2.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 23.5% | 11.3% |
| 2/8/2023 | 27.1% | 19.8% |
| 11/9/2022 | 18.5% | -21.8% |
| 8/10/2022 | -14.8% | 5.2% |
| 5/11/2022 | 34.7% | 7.9% |
| 2/16/2022 | -6.7% | -33.0% |
| 11/10/2021 | 20.0% | -0.3% |
| 8/11/2021 | -2.6% | -3.6% |
| CORRELATION | 29.1% |
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