Has Deckers Outdoor Stock Quietly Become a Value Play?
Here is why we think Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock deserves consideration as a value stock. It is currently trading nearly 56% below its 1 year high, and also trading at a PS multiple which is below the average for the last 3 years. However, it has reasonable fundamentals for its level of valuation.
- Reasonable Revenue Growth: 16.3% LTM and 16.5% last 3 year average.
- Cash Generative: Nearly 19.2% free cash flow margin and 23.6% operating margin LTM.
- No Major Margin Shocks: Deckers Outdoor has avoided any margin collapse in the last 12 months.
- Modest Valuation: Despite encouraging fundamentals, DECK stock trades at a PE multiple of 15.3
- Opportunity vs S&P: Compared to S&P, you get lower valuation, higher revenue growth, and better margins
As a quick background, Deckers Outdoor provides footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual and high-performance use, distributing through department stores, specialty retailers, and operating 140 global retail stores as of March 2021.
Single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Let us ask you this: Over the last 5 years, which index do you think the Trefis High Quality Portfolio outperformed – the S&P 500, S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, or both? The answer might surprise you. See how our advisory framework helps stack the odds in your favor.
| DECK | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | – |
| Industry | Footwear | – |
| PE Ratio | 15.3 | 23.9 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 16.3% | 5.2% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 16.5% | 5.3% |
| LTM Operating Margin Change | 2.0% | 0.3% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 19.2% | 13.3% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
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But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell DECK Stock to see if Deckers Outdoor still has an edge that holds up under the hood.
Stocks Like These Can Outperform. Here Is Data
Below are statistics for stocks with same selection strategy applied between 12/31/2016 and 6/30/2025.
- Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 12.7% and 25.8% respectively
- Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of > 70% for both 6-month and 12-month periods
- Not over dependent on market crashes. During non-crash periods as well, this strategy has 12-month average return of nearly 20% with 67% win rate.
But Consider The Risk
That said, DECK isn’t immune to big drops. It fell 44% in the Dot-Com crash and took a huge 77% hit during the Global Financial Crisis. Even the 2018 correction dragged it down over 26%. The Covid sell-off shaved about 55%, and the inflation shock cut nearly 49%. Solid fundamentals matter, but when chaos hits, DECK’s no exception.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read DECK Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.