CommVault Systems Stock To $90?
CommVault Systems (CVLT) stock has fallen by 27.1% in less than a month, from $176.43 on 20th Oct, 2025 to $128.58 now. What comes next? We think that he stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $90 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell CommVault Systems Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on CVLT stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 33%, with median peak return reaching 42%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
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Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 7.8% |
| 3M | 10.2% |
| 6M | 14.5% |
| 12M | 32.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
CVLT had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 42% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 158 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -7.7% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | CVLT Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | CVLT | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 33% | 42% | -8% | 158 | ||||
| 11062025 | -33% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4 | ||
| 3122020 | -30% | -24% | 112% | 124% | -13% | 337 | ||
| 5012014 | -30% | 1% | -6% | 16% | -11% | 133 | ||
| 8182011 | -31% | -15% | 61% | 68% | -4% | 183 | ||
CommVault Systems Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 22.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 11.7% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 19.7% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 77.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 947.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.