How Will CrowdStrike Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding the stock’s historical performance around earnings announcements can be a valuable insight. Over the past five years, CrowdStrike’s stock has shown a tendency for positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 55% of instances. The median positive return on these days was 9.3%, with the largest single-day gain reaching 13.6%.

While the actual results compared to consensus and expectations will heavily influence the stock’s movement, historical patterns can offer an edge. Traders might consider two main strategies:

• Pre-earnings positioning: You could leverage these historical odds to inform your trading decisions before the earnings release.
• Post-earnings positioning: Alternatively, you could analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are made public to guide your trading strategy.

Analysts anticipate CrowdStrike to report earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.11 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter, when the company reported earnings of $0.93 per share on revenue of $921 million.

From a fundamental perspective, CrowdStrike currently has a market capitalization of $117 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $4.0 billion in revenue. However, it was operationally loss-making, reporting -$120 million in operating losses and a net income of -$19 million.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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CrowdStrike’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 11 positive returns = 9.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CRWD 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CRWD Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of CrowdStrike stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before CrowdStrike. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

CRWD Correlation With Peer Earnings

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