How Will Salesforce Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. For event-driven traders, historical patterns around earnings releases can be a valuable guide. Over the past five years, CRM stock has shown a mixed but predictable pattern on the day following its earnings report: in 50% of instances, it experienced a positive one-day return with a median gain of 7.4%, and in the other 50% of cases, it saw a negative one-day return with a median loss of 5.5%.

While actual results compared to consensus estimates will heavily influence the stock’s movement, understanding these historical odds can help traders position themselves strategically. There are two primary approaches for event-driven traders: analyzing historical probabilities and taking a position before the earnings release, or observing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released and then positioning accordingly.

Analysts anticipate CRM to report earnings of $2.55 per share on sales of $9.75 billion, compared to $2.44 per share on sales of $9.13 billion in the same quarter last year. From a fundamental perspective, CRM currently has a market capitalization of $262 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $38 billion in revenue, with strong operational profitability, reporting $7.7 billion in operating profits and a net income of $6.2 billion. Now, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Image by Tammy Duggan-Herd from Pixabay

Salesforce’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 7.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -5.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

CRM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CRM Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Salesforce stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Salesforce. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

CRM Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Salesforce, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates