Salesforce.com’s Stock Fell By 13% Last Month, What Next?

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Salesforce.com’s stock (NYSE: CRM) declined by 13% in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index fell by only 0.05% over the same period. The stock fell after its Q3 FY 2022 (ended Oct 2021) earnings, due to lower than expected Q4 FY 2022 guidance. The lower guidance made the investors overlook the better than expected Q3 results. Now, is CRM stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 83% chance of a rise in CRM stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Salesforce.com’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: CRM -6.3%, vs. S&P500 2.8%; Underperformed market

(6% event probability)

  • Salesforce.com’s stock declined 6.3% over a five day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 2.8%
  • A change of -6.3% or more over five trading days has a 6% event probability, which has occurred 160 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
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Ten Days: CRM -10%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Underperformed market

(4% event probability)

  • Salesforce.com’s stock declined 10% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.2%
  • A change of -10% or more over ten trading days has a 4% event probability, which has occurred 90 times out of 2515 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: CRM -13%, vs. S&P500 -0.05%; Underperformed market

(3% event probability)

  • Salesforce.com’s stock declined 13% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) fall of 0.05%
  • A change of -13% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 3% event probability, which has occurred 80 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

While CRM stock is likely go up in the near term, there are other stocks that look like a Better Bet Than CRM Stock. Also, salesforce.com Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 CRM Return -13% 20% 290%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 25% 110%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% 45% 290%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/8/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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