How Will Credo Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) is set to report its earnings on Monday, December 1, 2025. The company has $27 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $600 Mil, and it was operationally profitable with $113 Mil in operating profits and net income of $125 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Credo Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 15%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -6.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/3/2025 | 7.4% | 31.4% | 19.9% |
| 6/2/2025 | 14.8% | 13.5% | 42.6% |
| 3/4/2025 | -14.0% | -20.2% | -20.8% |
| 12/2/2024 | 47.9% | 40.2% | 48.4% |
| 9/4/2024 | -14.9% | -14.9% | -1.3% |
| 5/29/2024 | 27.1% | 31.1% | 58.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.7% | -5.6% | -3.7% |
| 11/29/2023 | -7.0% | -8.4% | 1.1% |
| 8/24/2023 | 5.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| 5/31/2023 | 23.2% | 19.9% | 29.2% |
| 3/1/2023 | -3.0% | -5.8% | -13.0% |
| 11/30/2022 | 4.1% | 8.5% | -4.5% |
| 8/31/2022 | -5.9% | -7.5% | -20.2% |
| 6/1/2022 | 26.2% | 30.9% | 10.1% |
| 3/9/2022 | -1.7% | -11.0% | -17.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 14.8% | 25.4% | 24.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -8.4% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 47.9% | 40.2% | 58.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -20.2% | -20.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -16.2% | 26.1% | 3.0% |
| 3Y History | -28.3% | 28.0% | -3.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Credo Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Credo Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDO Earnings Dates | CRDO | QCOM | FSLR | SLAB | POWI |
| 9/3/2025 | 7.4% | N/A* | N/A* | 3.4% | -7.1% |
| 6/2/2025 | 14.8% | N/A* | N/A* | -8.6% | -15.4% |
| 3/4/2025 | -14.0% | -12.2% | -20.0% | -1.9% | -2.8% |
| 12/2/2024 | 47.9% | -5.8% | N/A* | 10.2% | 1.4% |
| 9/4/2024 | -14.9% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -4.8% |
| 5/29/2024 | 27.1% | 26.9% | N/A* | N/A* | 7.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.7% | 6.6% | N/A* | 1.8% | -10.1% |
| 11/29/2023 | -7.0% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 3.3% |
| 8/24/2023 | 5.2% | -16.1% | -12.3% | -9.7% | -10.3% |
| 5/31/2023 | 23.2% | 1.2% | N/A* | N/A* | 17.6% |
| 3/1/2023 | -3.0% | -8.4% | 15.7% | -0.4% | -4.6% |
| 11/30/2022 | 4.1% | 13.2% | N/A* | N/A* | 21.6% |
| 8/31/2022 | -5.9% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -15.8% |
| 3/9/2022 | -1.7% | N/A* | 4.3% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 24.7% | 29.1% | -31.8% | 52.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CRDO
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